789
AXNT20 KNHC 061058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1215 UTC Thu Mar 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N74W to
northwestern Cuba will progress rapidly eastward through Fri
morning, producing gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along
and ahead of the front, generally north of 29N. Gale force W to NW
winds are also anticipated in the wake of the front north of 29N
through late tonight. Rough seas in W to NW swell associated with
this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week,
producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 25N through Thu,
and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are
anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this
week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the
forecast waters by Fri.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 01S75W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 04S to
03N between 10W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front has pushed southeast of the Gulf of
Mexico, and a second cold front extends from north-central
Florida to 28N85W. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring across
the eastern basin, with near-gale force winds occurring north of
26N and east of 85.5W. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are noted in
this region, with seas to 12 ft occurring near the near-gale force
winds. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of
Campeche in the wake of the cold front in the northwestern
Caribbean. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high centered over southeastern
Texas is extending ridging through the western basin. Moderate N
winds and moderate seas are occurring in the central basin, with
gentle E winds west of 95W.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds will occur
across the northeastern Gulf this morning, generally north of 25N
and east of 90W, in the wake of a cold front moving into the
northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany these
winds before winds and seas diminish by this afternoon. High
pressure building over the central United States today and on Fri
will extend ridging through the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE
to E winds will occur west of 90W this afternoon through Fri,
with locally strong winds possible offshore of eastern Mexico and
in the Bay of Campeche tonight. Farther east, moderate NW winds
this afternoon will turn to the SE on Fri. Looking ahead, a cold
front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sat, producing
widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas in its
wake. Gale conditions and very rough seas will be possible
offshore Veracruz on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the northwestern Caribbean Sea from
western Cuba to eastern Belize, and moderate to locally fresh N
winds are occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, locally fresh
NE winds and seas to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia, near a
1009 mb low anchored over northwestern Colombia. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient over much of the basin supports gentle to
locally moderate trades and moderate seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong E to NE winds
will occur offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
through this weekend as low pressure prevails over northwestern
Colombia, and ridging persists north of the region. Locally rough
seas may occur near and to the west of the strongest winds. A cold
front in the northwestern Caribbean will progress southeastward
and weaken today, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will
occur in the wake of the front into Fri morning. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail across the rest of the basin through Fri. Looking ahead,
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will develop across the
basin this weekend as a new cold front moves southeastward through
the Gulf of Mexico, entering the Caribbean early next week.
Fresh to strong SE winds will be possible in the Gulf of Honduras
Sat night into Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning off the coast of NE Florida.

A cold front extends from 31N74W through the northern Bahamas and
northwestern Cuba, and gale force SW winds are occurring ahead of
the cold front north of 29N. A second cold front is noted from
31N78W to northeastern Florida, with gale force W to NW winds
behind this front. Rough seas are propagating southeastward,
producing rough seas over 8 ft north of 27N between 68W and 81W,
with very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 29N between 74W and
80W. Over the north-central subtropical waters, a stationary front
continues to weaken along 31N39W to 28N55W. Fresh NE winds are
found north of the front. The remainder Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high near
29N38W, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the
tropics and gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere over the
central and eastern subtropical waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N74W to
northwestern Cuba will progress rapidly eastward through Fri
morning, producing gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along
and ahead of the front, generally north of 29N. Gale force W to NW
winds are also anticipated in the wake of the front north of 29N
through late tonight. Rough seas in W to NW swell associated with
this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week,
producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 25N through Thu,
and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are
anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this
week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the
forecast waters by Fri, with high pressure building in its wake
off the coast of the southeastern United States. Elsewhere, fresh
to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail north of a
stationary front in the central Atlantic today, extending from
31N39W to 28N55W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E winds and
locally rough seas will prevail south of 23N into this weekend.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off the coast of the
southeastern United States late this weekend, producing fresh to
locally strong winds and rough seas off the coast of Florida into
early next week.

$$
ADAMS
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409
AXNT20 KNHC 111033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb low pressure system located
offshore the North Carolina coast will shift eastward through
tonight, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic
waters. The front currently extends from the low through 31N73W
across the NW Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba along 80W.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed gale-force S-SW
within 60 nm east of the front, and north of 28N, and gale-force
westerly winds offshore of Florida north of 29N. As the front
shifts eastward through Wed, strong to gale-force SW winds are
expected within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N, accompanied
by strong thunderstorms. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds
and very rough seas to near 18 ft are expected behind the front
and N of 27N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern
Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Wed
morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of Hispaniola by Thu
morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as
the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing
portion of the front stalling across the coastal waters of Puerto
Rico early Fri before dissipating.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and continues southwestward to
00N21W. The ITCZ extends from 00N21W to the coast of Brazil near
01.5S45W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted south of 05N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from south of 05N and between 20W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The frontal boundary that moved across the basin during the past
24 hours has moved into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
NW to N winds continue across the western Florida coastal waters
from Tampa Bay to the Florida Keys. Recent buoy observations
indicate that seas are still 7-9 ft from offshore of Tampa Bay to
the Yucatan Channel. A 1020 mb high pressure system is over the NW
Gulf, bringing dry continental air across the Gulf waters.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the SE Gulf this morning as a cold front moves farther SE into the
NW Caribbean. High pressure over the NW Gulf will slide eastward
across the northern Gulf through Thu. Expect fresh to strong
southerly winds and building seas developing across most of the
basin Fri through Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front.
The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and weaken
from near SE Louisiana to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from west-central Cuba to the
north-central coast of Honduras. Scattered showers are occurring
within 90 nm behind the boundary, and also across eastern Cuba.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that fresh to
strong northerly winds were occurring behind the front. Seas
behind the front are 4-8 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel.
Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure
system in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South
America result in fresh to strong easterly winds in the south-
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and slight
to moderate seas are present in the north- central and eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front in the NW basin will move SE and
reach from east-central Cuba to central Honduras by Tue evening,
and from northern Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed
evening before dissipating. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas
behind the front through late Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high
pressure N of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E
trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds at night Thu into the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean
Fri night through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore
the SE United States.

A cold front extends from a deepening low pressure off the coast
of North Carolina to west-central Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen near and ahead of the front north of 26N.
Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, across the
southern half of the low pressure circulation, with gale-force
westerly winds offshore of northern Florida, and along and east of
the front N of 28N. Seas are quickly building within this area of
winds, with recent buoy observations showing seas of 12 to 16 ft
north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough enters the basin
near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 22N60W. Moderate to
strong cyclonic winds are evident north of 24N and between 25N and
48W. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. The rest of the
basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports
moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 20N and seas of 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure located offshore the
North Carolina coast will shift eastward today, dragging a cold
front across the western Atlantic waters. Strong to gale-force SW
winds are expected through Wed morning within 120 nm E of the
front and N of 26N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to
gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas are expected behind
the front and N of 26N through Wed. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the
Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of
Hispaniola by Thu morning. The low will lift out to the northeast
by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area,
with a trailing portion of the front stalling across the coastal
waters of Puerto Rico early Fri before dissipating. Winds and seas
will diminish from west to east through late week as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front.

$$
Stripling
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781
AXNT20 KNHC 121017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic
waters, extending from a 996 mb low centered just N of Bermuda
through 31N61W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection and strong to gale-force SW winds are
occurring within 150 nm east of the front north of 24N. Recent
satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to gale-force
southerly winds ahead of the front to near 50W and north of 21N.
Strong to near gale-force NW to W winds are occurring behind the
front to 74W and north of 23N. Large NW to W swell behind the
front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater N
of 25N between the front and 75W early this morning that will
shift eastward through Thu. The front is expected to reach from
31N55W to the NE Dominican Republic by Wed evening, and from
23N55W to eastern Dominican Republic by Thu evening. SW gales
ahead of the front will continue through Wed evening before
lifting N of 31N. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through late week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 00.5N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 00.5N20W to 00N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04.5N and
between 10W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1020 mb high pressure centered over the east central Gulf dominates
the basin, and is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Moderate southerly winds and seas prevail west of 93W. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found off
western Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the E central
Gulf will slide eastward across Florida and into the W Atlantic
Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set up over
the western Gulf today, then weaken Thu as a front approaches SE
Texas. Southerly winds will then increase to fresh to strong
speeds across most of the basin Fri, then to strong Fri night
ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf
early Sat, and quickly weaken, reaching from the Florida
Panhandle to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the E coast of Cuba to the Bay
Islands and northern Honduras. Widely scattered shallow showers
are occurring near this boundary. High pressure over the central
Atlantic supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the
south- central Caribbean waters S of 13N, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in the SE
Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are slight
to moderate. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually become
W to E aligned from central Hispaniola to northern Belize by Wed
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas will prevail N of the front through this morning.
Otherwise, weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate
to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds at night during the upcoming weekend.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of
Honduras and NW Caribbean Fri night becoming strong on Sat as
strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning in the SW North Atlantic.

The SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a strong cold
front moving across the waters, with the impacts associated with
this boundary described above in the Special Features section.
Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N19W to
26N30W, becoming a stationary front to 24N51W. Isolated showers
are noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are
present north of 29N and between 24W and 38W, along with rough
seas to 12 ft in NW swell. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic
is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains
moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 20N. Seas in this area
are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the African mainland. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic cold front is
expected to reach from 31N55W to the NE Dominican Republic by Wed
evening, and from 23N55W to eastern Dominican Republic by Thu
evening. The southern portion of the front will then become
stationary across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri morning
then dissipate. SW gales ahead of the front will persist through
Wed evening before lifting N of 31N. Large NW to W swell behind
the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and
greater N of 25N between the front and 75W early this morning that
will shift eastward through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish
from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, strong
high pressure will settle across the N central Atlantic Fri night
through the upcoming weekend, producing increasing easterly winds
and building seas.

$$
Stripling
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720
AXNT20 KNHC 151016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in
the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system
intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the
northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 26N between 49W and
52W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The
low will move NW through mid- week while weakening.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Equator to 05N between 08W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure is steadily building across the Gulf area. Latest
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds across
the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas of 1 to
3 ft are between the W coast of Florida and 85W, and in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, low pressure will continue to build across the
basin ahead of the next front. Fresh to strong southerly winds
will expand across the basin tonight ahead of the next frontal
passage. The front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, then reach
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning,
and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Near-gale force southerly
winds will likely develop ahead of the front today and off
Veracruz Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the
basin Mon through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico. This
pattern is allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds over the
Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean mainly S of 18N and W of
85W. Similar wind speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore
Colombia. Moderate NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest
winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. The proximity of a stationary
front combined with an upper-level low is helping to induce some
shower activity over Puerto Rico and regional waters as well as
over the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere shallow moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow noted producing isolated to scttrd
passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build
while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night offshore Colombia through early next
week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend.
Fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will expand to
the remaining NW Caribbean W of 82W ahead of a cold front forecast
to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW basin Mon morning.
Rough seas are expected with the strong winds preceding the
front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will be
associated with the passage of the front, which is forecast to
reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, from the
Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening before dissipating late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N31W and
continues SW to near 23N46W, where it transitions into a
stationary frontal boundary that extends to 21N64W. Scattered
showers thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front N of 25N. An
area of cloudiness, with embedded showers is within about 250 nm N
of the stationary front between 52W and 60W. To the NW of the
stationary front, a trough is analyzed from 28N67W to 23N65W.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity is E of the trough. The
pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure N of the
forecast region supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds
from 23N to 29N between 55W and the trough axis. Mainly fresh
winds are noted in the wake of the front with seas up to 15 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed
at 25N27W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining
subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate
seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic except in the vicinity
of the Cabo Verde Islands where moderate to fresh NE wind are
occurring with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a stationary front
is analyzed from 24N44W to 21N65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing N of the front between 55W and
64W. The front will lift N through the weekend while weakening.
High pressure over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE
to the central Atlantic waters through early next week. The
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the remnants of
the aforementioned front will lead to the development of fresh to
strong winds north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend.
These winds will support building rough seas across E of the
Bahamas. Looking ahead, A low pres system will develop E of the
area, with increasing winds to gale-force possible mainly N of 27N
and E of 56W by Mon afternoon/night. To the W, a strong cold
front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded
and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds. The front will
reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue
morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning.

$$
ERA
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756
AXNT20 KNHC 160957
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to
develop in the central Atlantic tonight. As the system
intensifies, gale- force winds are expected by this evening across
the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W
and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds.
The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N22W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection within 300 nm on either
side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, analyzed from
30N88W to 21N97W. Recent satellite derived wind data confirm the
presence of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front.
Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 11 ft across the east-central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
noted in the wake of the front. Scattered thunderstorms ahead of
the front are noted N of 27N and E of 87W.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move southeast
and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by
this morning, and move E of the Gulf tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front will prevail today across the
eastern Gulf waters, then fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the front will develop today though Mon night. Looking ahead, high
pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the
high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue.
Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf
region by mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW
Caribbean, while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of
Mexico. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S
winds over the the NW Caribbean, particularly N of 15N and W of
83W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within
these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per
scatterometer data in the Windward Passage as well as over the
south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to
moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are
3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW
Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently
moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the Yucatan Channel by
tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will
follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night
into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong
speeds at night offshore Colombia through early this week.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N21W and
continues southwestward to near 22N40W, where it transitions into
a stationary front that extends to 22N61W. Farther north, 1032 mb
high pressure centered near 36N47W dominates the western
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the
frontal boundary supports an area of fresh to strong E winds N of
the stationary front between 40W and 70W, where seas are in the 8
to 11 ft range. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly swell of
8 to 14 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. Moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. A short wave trough in the
mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal boundary to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly N of 20N
between 44W and 56W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure center is
analyzed at 27N17W, extending a weak ridge across much of the
remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds
and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a developing low pressure will
support gale-force winds east of 55W by tonight. These conditions
will likely last through Mon night, then diminishing to fresh to
strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support
rough to very seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast tonight
preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough
seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos
and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed
morning.

$$
ERA
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835
AXNT20 KNHC 181039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends 31N71W to E Cuba. A
low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed.
Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region through Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone
near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and west of 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh
northerly winds east of 87W and seas of 6-11 ft. An altimeter pass
from a few hours ago showed seas to 11 ft in the Loop Current,
west of the Dry Tortugas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf will
continue to diminish today. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure
gradient in the western half of the basin will result in fresh to
strong S winds today and tonight ahead of the next cold front
forecast to come off the coast of Texas Wed morning. The front
will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz Wed night, from Cape
Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the basin
Thu night into Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong
N winds and rough seas. Winds may approach gale force Thu
afternoon off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin on Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from SE Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are behind the front
spilling in through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers are noted
near the boundary. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate seas are noted in the south-central Caribbean. In the
remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas follow a
cold front that extends from SE Cuba to Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Honduras. The weakening frontal boundary will continue eastward
before dissipating tonight into Wed. Building high pressure in the
wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of
pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage late today through Wed evening. In the central
and portions of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong NE-E winds will
prevail through early next week. High pressure will build near the
Bahamas over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the
region, with near gale-force winds developing offshore Colombia.
Rough to very rough seas will build off Colombia and into the SW
Caribbean Wed night into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1007 mb low pressure is located near 25N58W. Strong to
near gale-force E-SE winds are occurring north of 26N and between
43W and 61W. Rough to very rough seas are found in the area
described. The center is devoid of deep convection but scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 20N and
between 43W and 52W. Additional development of this low is not
expected as it moves northwestward into an environment of strong
upper-level winds and dry air on Tuesday. A surface trough extends
from the low center to the northern Leeward Islands.

As previously mentioned, cold front extends 31N71W to SE Cuba.
Scattered showers are ahead of the front but mainly N of 24N.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted in the wake of the front.
Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front with seas of 8 to 11
ft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are across the waters
from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and 35W, including
through the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Rough to very
rough seas in long period NW swell are affecting the Madeira and
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
aforementioned low pressure will persist in the northern
semicircle as the low moves north and exits the forecast waters by
Wed morning. Strong to near gale-force winds will precede and
continue to follow a cold front that extends from 31N71W to E
Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to N Hispaniola this
afternoon, and from 31N60W to Puerto Rico Wed morning. A low
pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed
evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the region through Thu night. Looking ahead, a third strong front
is forecast to come off the Florida NE coast Thu.

$$
Delgado
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