496
AXNT20 KNHC 231059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved across
the Straits of Florida and has entered the NW Caribbean, extending
from western Cuba to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Gale-force NW
winds continue across the coastal waters near Veracruz, where
seas are estimated at 15-16 ft. Elsewhere behind the front,
overnight satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to near
gale- force northerly winds over much of the basin. Rough to very
rough seas of 11 to 14 ft in northerly swell continue across much
of the Gulf this morning. Gales are expected to end off of
Veracruz around sunrise this morning. However, strong to near-
gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will prevail
this morning, with wind and seas gradually subsiding from NW to SE
this afternoon through Tue as high pressure shifts eastward
across the northern Gulf coasts. Seas are expected to subside
below 12 ft late this evening.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move
southeastward across the region and currently extends from 31N69W
southwestward across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. Scattered
light to moderate convection is noted ahead of the front.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that gale-force
NW winds were occurring behind the front off of NE Florida but
have since shifted to the NE and are now north of 31N. The front
will continue to move SE today with strong to near-gale force NW
winds and rapidly building seas expected behind the front through
this evening, before winds begin to gradually diminish. Recent
satellite altimeter data across the area of gale force winds
showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to reach from SE
of Bermuda to east-central Cuba this evening, and from 31N61W to
the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while
weakening. The front will then stall from near 29N55W to the
central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate
through Thu. Strong to near- gale NW winds will persist over much
of the western Atlantic behind the front until Tue night, with
seas remaining in the 12 to 16 ft range. Conditions are expected
to gradually improve thereafter.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N12W and continues southwestward to 03N15.5W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N15.5W to 02N19W and to the coast of Brazil
near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04.5N
between 10W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
Gale Warning.

The strong cold front impacting the basin this weekend has moved
SE of the Gulf tonight and is now in the NW Caribbean. A few
showers remain across the Yucatan Channel. 1037 mb high pressure
is across NE Texas and extends a ridge southward across eastern
Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient
between this robust ridge and the lower pressures associated with
the front continues to drive fresh to near gale- force northerly
winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the basin. Seas of
11 to 14 ft in northerly swell cover a good portion of the Gulf
this morning, with peak seas of 15-16 ft across the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across eastern Texas and NE
Mexico will continue to produce fresh to strong N winds across
the entire Gulf basin this morning. Winds are expected to diminish
below gale-force near Veracruz after sunrise. Winds and seas will
gradually subside from NW to SE today through Tue in the wake of
the front, as the high pressure behind the front shifts E-SE
across the region, and into the Atlantic by Wed. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night
and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed through Thu, ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening.
This next front is expected to begin to stall from the Florida
Panhandle to the Mexican coastal waters late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward across the
NW basin and into the Yucatan Peninsula near the Mexico-Belize
border. Scattered showers are evident in the Yucatan Channel,
ahead of and behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and moderate seas in N swell are moving into the Yucatan Channel.
The rest of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic extending westward to near 70W.
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
occurring in the south-central Caribbean S of 15N. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-
central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds offshore of
Venezuela and Colombia will diminish this morning as high pressure
to the north weakens. The strong cold front will continue to move
SE and reach from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica
border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central
Dominican Republic to SE Nicaragua Wed. Expect strong N to NE
winds and rough to very rough seas behind this front through Tue
night. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and
western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
W Atlantic Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward across the
NW Bahamas and then across western Cuba and into the NW Caribbean.
Scattered light to moderate convection is evident ahead of the
front. Gale force winds occurring behind the front offshore of NE
Florida earlier tonight have diminished to around 30 kt, leaving
strong to near gale-force NW winds and rough to very rough seas of
8 to 16 ft behind the boundary. Fresh to near gale- force SW
winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front, especially
north of 27N and east of 60W. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the east and central tropical
Atlantic with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 25N47W. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures north of
the area support moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds and moderate
to rough seas north of 27N and between 60W and 30W. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft in mixed N and E
trade wind swell are present south of 20N and west of 30W to the
Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted
off NE South America. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to reach
from SE of Bermuda to east-central Cuba this evening, and from
31N61W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning,
while weakening. The front will then stall from near 29N55W to the
central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate
through Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the
front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the
region Thu and Fri.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)