FOUS11 KWBC 230847
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026

...Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, through Northeast... Days 1-2...

*** Mature Nor'Easter shifts northeast today from off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast to Nova Scotia. Blizzard conditions continue for
the northern Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and the rest of today
for eastern New England ***

Nor'easter near peak intensity with the low pressure center near
970mb as it tracks northeast from it's current location off the
Delmarva. A surface ridge extending into the central Appalachians from
a 1050mb surface high pressure entering western Ontario, ensures a
great pressure gradient across the Northeast maintaining blizzard
conditions for the Northeastern Seaboard, including the northern
Mid-Atlantic through this morning and eastern New England through
the rest of today.

A well defined outer band lingers over NJ into CT into the mid-
morning with high snowfall rates over 2"/hr. This outer band with
inner bands over southeast New England produce the event peak snow
rates around mid morning. The 00Z HREF continues to indicate 3"/hr
rate potential over eastern Mass 12-14Z, though the powerful wind
should limit SLRs, but it'll be quite impactful snow banding with
oceanic enhancement. The low then pivots toward Nova Scotia with
rates of 1-2"/hr over eastern New England into this evening.
The threat for evening north flow from the Gulf of Maine through
eastern Mass/Cape Cod is looking less impactful as the progression
of the low as increased. Additional snowfall >12" after 12Z is
50-70% across southeast Mass and just off the Maine Coast.

Upslope snow through the central Apps on NW flow continues into
the overnight. Snow rates stay below 1"/hr per the 00Z HREF, but
the prolonged duration leads to some significant snow fall. Day 1
snow probs for an additional >6" after 12Z are 50-80% in the
highest reaches of the Allegheny Highlands in WV.

...Cascades and Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

Sheared low/zonally-oriented trough directs an atmospheric river
(AR) into OR this afternoon before shunting south through northern
CA tonight/Tuesday. This trough allows a tight baroclinic zone to
setup today with snow levels dropping to around 2500ft at
Snoqualmie Pass WA and to around 4000ft in northwest MT while
rising above 7000/8000ft in the core of the AR in OR. Day 1 snow
probs for >6" are 50% at pass level in the WA Cascades and for the
ranges of western MT/northern ID.

The southward shift in the AR through Tuesday brings heavy precip
to northern portions of CA and the Great Basin with CA snow levels
over 9000ft with no snow impacts. Snow levels are closer to 7000ft
in western WY and central ID where Day 2 snow probs for >6" snow
probs are 60-90%. Exceptional moisture is directed across the
northern Great Basin with Day 2 snow probs for >24" over 50% in the Tetons.

The snow focus shifts south down the Rockies into northern CO
Wednesday, but it's transient in a powerful westerly jet. Day 3
snow probs for >6" are 30-60% in the north-central CO ranges,
western WY, around Glacier NP, and in the higher WA Cascades.

...Great Lakes and Northeast... Days 2/3...

An Alberta Clipper shifts ESE from northern MN through MI on Tuesday
before reaching Upstate NY Tuesday night and crossing New England
on Wednesday. Warm air advection ahead of the surface low will be
into an Arctic airmass with plenty of DGZ available for snow
crystal growth. Moderate snow rates from Lake Michigan enhancement
can be expected in the eastern U.P. where Day 2 snow probs for >6"
are 50-70%. Brief LES trails the clipper Tuesday night off Lake
Superior, then spreading across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Day 2
snow probs for >6" are 50% in the Keweenaw Peninsula and around
40% in the Tug Hill for Day 2.5.

...Northern Plains... Day 3...

The next clipper crosses the northern Plains Wednesday, pushing
into the Midwest Wednesday night. The GFS remains the farthest
north/strongest with this clipper, so stay tuned on potential with
it which may include both a wintry mix and snow.

Jackson

...Winter Storm Key Messages remain in effect and linked below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

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