Cheap smartphones could soon be a thing of the past, as AI boom snaps up
chips more than 230 million devices a year could be gone by the end of the decade

Date:
Wed, 30 Sep 2026 01:20:00 +0000

Description:
Phones are likely to be more expensive in the future, as rising memory and chipset costs look set to consign budget smartphones to history

FULL STORY ======================================================================Copy link Facebook X Whatsapp Reddit Pinterest Flipboard Threads Email Share this article 0 Join the conversation Follow us Add us as a preferred source on Google Newsletter Subscribe to our newsletter Report claims production of budget smartphones could drop by 40% by 2030 The increasing costs of RAM and chipsets thanks to the AI data center boom are key factors in the forecast In addition, basic product lines aimed at the lower end of the market are becoming less profitable as minimum spec phones are overlooked in favour of portable media production devices It could be time to start saving for your next phone, thanks to the increasing demand for RAM, processors, and SoCs,
new research has claimed. The AI data center boom has driven various price rises across the electronics industry over the past few years, and now it seems that the days of the budget smartphone could be numbered and at best, they may be hard to come by for a while.

Forecasting by Counterpoint Research estimates smartphones below the $200 figure could shrink by 40% by 2030 - which equates to the market shrinking by 230 million devices. While mid-range, premium, and ultra-premium devices are less affected by this, those on lower incomes particularly in poorer countries could find internet access is off-limits. Latest Videos From TechRadar Watch full video here: A sharp contraction Counterpoint Researchs study suggests the smartphone market will change considerably as higher
device specifications justify higher price points in a landscape where component costs are climbing.

This structural shock can be traced to the current downturn, and will likely lead many people to keep their phones for longer (although those who can afford it will upgrade). Its a scenario that could see the extension of replacement cycles by consumers and vendors alike (perhaps persuaded by
market demand) and the refurbished handset market could also benefit. Handset insurance plans may also see longer subscriptions, too, further supporting
the refurbished market and legacy stock supplies. You may like Analyst believes RAM crisis may get far worse in 2027, and you can blame AI Good for Mother Nature? RAM-pocalyse encourages millions to recycle their old devices as expert says 'economics of component recovery are changing' RAM crisis
could get much worse next year and might persist beyond 2030

Over recent years, premium smartphones have driven the market, and the data apparently suggests this will continue. The prediction doesnt suggest budget phones will go away entirely, but there could be new opportunities from the used phone market, dumbphones (like the Commodore Callback ), and even niche/DIY solutions. Connectivity risk More premium phones and higher specced mid-range devices sounds good at face value. However, it does mean that regions where budget phones are vital to communications and internet access are likely to find it more difficult to achieve mobile internet connectivity. Are you a pro? Subscribe to our newsletter Sign up to the TechRadar Pro newsletter to get all the top news, opinion, features and guidance your business needs to succeed! Contact me with news and offers from other Future brands Receive email from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy and are aged 16 or over.

The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing, said Yang Wang, a principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, noting the market size will be similar overall, but different in value.

The opportunity now shifts toward better-specced mainstream devices and premium products, although higher tiers cannot absorb all the lost volume, Wang adds, there is also a wider connectivity risk, as the loss of affordable new smartphones could make it harder for first-time users in lower-income markets to come online.

Counterpoint Research underlines that it expects the smartphone market to regain its 2025 volume by 2030, but with a much smaller budget segment.
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